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Article originally published in COP Central, on 13/3/2025

The 30th UN climate change conference will take place in Belém, Pará, in November. The simple fact that it is being held in a capital city in the Amazon is very significant. After all, this region is vital for the world to face this emergency threat to life. The forest stores enormous amounts of carbon that, if released into the atmosphere through deforestation or burning, could accelerate global warming on an equally large scale. 

However, two circumstances pose extraordinary challenges to COP 30. The first is that it will be the first conference after the average temperature of the Earth's surface exceeds 2024°C above pre-industrial levels in 1,5. The second is that it will be the stage for the official announcement of the withdrawal of the Paris Agreement, the international treaty to combat climate change, by the United States, the largest historical emitter and second largest current emitter of greenhouse gases causing the crisis.

The 1,5°C ceiling guides the emissions reduction targets of countries, which must present their updated NDCs in the coming months, i.e. their national commitments in relation to this global target. In Belém, it will be possible to assess the scope of these commitments to contain the average increase in the planet's temperature to a bearable level.

In turn, the US withdrawal from the process, as decided by Donald Trump's government, goes in the opposite direction. Its willingness to increase oil production and reduce investments in clean energy imposes setbacks in the face of an emergency climate situation. It is likely that some states, such as California, will maintain laws and policies to reduce emissions, despite the federal government. But it is also likely that Trump's lenient position will encourage other countries, such as Argentina, to withdraw and will be the pretext for others not to advance towards their goals.

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Weather in the forest

Belém is not a forest. It is a large city with over 1,3 million people. But the Amazon climate should be inspiring for most of the 50 visitors expected to attend COP 30. Its holding, under any conditions, feels like a victory for those who have fought for years to ensure that international climate agreements positively consider tropical forests as part of the problem and its solution.

The COP in Belém will provide an unprecedented opportunity for social movements linked to forest issues, including indigenous peoples, extractivists, quilombolas, environmentalists, scientists, young people and interested parties in general, both in Brazil and in neighboring countries. It has already attracted significant investment in infrastructure and will promote economic opportunities for the city.

It is very likely that some of the visitors will have the opportunity, before or after the event, to get to know the region better, actually enter the forest and participate in community-based tourism projects. It would be very enriching for the visitors, as well as for the people of Pará.

The Amazon scenario will be, above all, a strong stimulus for progress in addressing agendas related to the forests and climate binomial, both those that are normative and those that support large-scale initiatives to eliminate deforestation, multiply forest restoration and enhance the living conditions of forest peoples, which are essential for their long-term management. It is urgent to include support for projects to adapt these populations to new climate conditions in this agenda.

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Dead forests

Copaiba is a medicinal plant from the Amazon rainforest. The oil extracted from it is indicated for the treatment of dermatitis, white spot, skin mycoses, rashes, eczema, acne, psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, joint or muscle pain, healing and disinfecting wounds, dandruff, coughs, bronchitis, asthma, flu and colds, cystitis and urinary infections, urinary incontinence, discharge and gingivitis.

Copaiba is an icon of the generosity of the living forest, which we need to preserve. It is an enemy of deforestation, forest fires and climate drought, which threaten its existence. 

However, the conservation agenda is insufficient to reverse the climate emergency. It cannot do without another agenda, which concerns dead forests. Yes, because oil, natural gas and coal consist of deposits of organic matter in the subsoil, the burning of which produces 80% of the greenhouse gases that are concentrated in the atmosphere. This means that the human capacity to consume fossil fuels is much greater than that to kill living forests, although the latter is also tremendous.

Therefore, the desirable development of the forestry agenda cannot ignore the issue of fossil fuel combustion. COP 30 cannot be limited to the forestry agenda and must provide a space for denouncing and demanding action on fossil fuel emissions. This continues to be the priority agenda, without which living forests will not be able to survive. The inspiring forest scenario of COP 30 must not become a cloud of illusion.