Indigenous people in the region reported that the calls of frogs announced the floods, but the rains were delayed
Between the end of February and the beginning of March, in the Tiquié River region, Alto Rio Negro (AM), frog calls begin, announcing the floods. This year, at that time, the frogs were already singing in the community of São Pedro, but the rains delayed them.
“The frogs sing at the time just before the flood. Now, although the frogs are singing, the river is not rising, on the contrary, it is drying up”, reported Roberval Sambrano Pedrosa, from the Tukano people, Indigenous Environmental Management Agent (AIMA).
These observations coincide with indications from official bodies. In the year in which Amazonas experienced a record drought, the drought in the Middle and Upper Rio Negro was prolonged, with the minimum period registered earlier than expected, high temperatures, the sensation of boiling water, energy and food rationing and, also, the impact of smoke from fires that occurred in other parts of the Amazon, mainly Roraima.
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In this region, the dry season runs from August to March, and historically increases in January and February - in São Gabriel da Cachoeira, the record was reached in February 1992, when the Rio Negro reached 330 cm.
In the dry season between 2023 and 2024, the situation was different. The minimum occurred on November 9, with the river reaching 492 cm. Then, at the end of 2023, the so-called repiquete was recorded – the river rises and then falls again.
But, in March this year, the drought situation worsened again, with the river reaching 533 cm on March 1st. This level is below the year of the record drought: in March 1992, the river was at 573 cm.
According to information from the Geological Survey of Brazil - Mineral Resources Research Company (SGB-CPRM), between August 2023 and February 2024, there was a 30% deficit in rainfall in the Rio Negro and Solimões basin. The average is 1.290mm, but it rained 925mm, reflecting on river levels.
A possible explanation is El Niño and the warming of the waters of the Atlantic Ocean, lengthening the drought and causing fires in some regions of the Amazon. In São Gabriel da Cachoeira, no fires were recorded. But the smoke reached the Upper Rio Negro, even though this is one of the most preserved regions in the Amazon.
Ane Alencar, geographer and director of Science at the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (Ipam), stated that the impact of the start of the rainy season in the region was not yet enough to recover the river's flow.
“El Niño normally causes drought in the Amazon and, depending on its intensity, it will cause more drought. What happened in 2023 is a strong El Niño and, also, the disproportionate warming of the Atlantic waters, removing moisture from the system. These two effects for some reason came together and intensified each other and generated this disproportionate drought that mainly affected the North of Amazonas, which encompasses the region known as Cabeça do Cachorro, Roraima, North of Pará. The continental region of the Amazon”, he explained.
The region in the municipality of São Gabriel da Cachoeira is known as Cabeça do Cachorro due to its outline on the map.
As the researcher pointed out, in this area the drought extended both at the beginning and at the end, generating anomalies in the traditional calendar and impacting the daily lives of the communities.
The level of impacts is still being analyzed. “The impacts may be more worrying, given that the ecosystem as a whole, plants and animals, are not used to this type of stress. The ecological impact also ends up interfering with communities and their calendars, including the food security of the people of the Amazon”, he analyzed.
Stories from the people of Rio Negro
These changes to the traditional calendar have been observed by AIMAs. Damião Barbosa, from the Yebamasã people, is also part of the AIMAs Network and shares some of his observations made in the Tiquié River region, where he lives, in the community of São Filipe.
“There in Igarapé Castanho, last summer was very strong, it started around August. At that time (March 2024) it would be boom time, but it is a little late. The frogs have already sang, but the frog hasn't come yet. The frogs sang in January and February and at these times the rivers and lakes filled, but little compared to other years. In addition to the frogs, there is this frog, the tuhuã, who sang a lot, he sings during this time of umari. We are expecting a big piracema (the sound of these animals indicates the time when the river rises, which is when fish reproduction events occur) because the females of some fish already have lots of eggs, such as the aracu tres pintas, the pacu , the traíra, and the jandiá, all of them are just waiting for the river to fill to start reproducing. Also the constellation that is falling now is Bigode de Onça (Yai Uhsekopuari, in Tukano) which is when the biggest flood occurs,” he said.
Learn more about Tukano astronomy
Communicator João Alex Lins, from the Yanomami people and member of the Wayuri Network of Indigenous Communicators, reported that in the Maturacá community, in the Amazon portion of the Yanomami Indigenous Land, the drought of the Cauaburis River was alarming.
“This [drought] that we experienced, the facts narrated by the elderly, is that drought has always existed, but not like the one we witnessed. The rivers became very dry, the heat of the sun became frightening and irritating. We notice these climate changes in all regions of the planet. It is noticeable and it is worrying. It is affected by difficulty in getting around, we depend a lot on river travel,” he said.
Despite this situation, he assesses, the forest could have avoided a more drastic situation: “the more forest, the more capacity to generate rain and the more capacity for water to stay in the system when it rains, because the water will not evaporate or leach very quickly. So, yes, the forest is very important to increase the capacity to resist drought.”
The historic drought of 2023 in Amazonas affected all 62 cities in Amazonas and, according to the State Civil Defense, directly affected more than 600 thousand people.
In Manaus, the Rio Negro reached 135,9 cm, the lowest since 1902, when measurements began in the capital's port. In the capital, the so-called Amazon summer (when it rains less) runs from June to October.
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Impacts on territories
In the Upper Rio Negro, there were several impacts from the severe drought. The ferries that transport fuel that supplies the gas stations and the São Gabriel thermoelectric plant, as well as food, were unable to go up the river, leading to shortages.
On October 18 last year, authorities met at the local Forum to discuss the issue. The following day, residents organized a protest in front of this institution, demanding action.
At the time, it was reported that the city would only have fuel for another four days, posing a risk of a blackout. So that the population would not be completely without energy supply, rationing of up to 18 hours a day was established between October 19th and 23rd, leading to a series of disruptions and impacts even on essential services, such as care in health centers.
In November, indigenous communicator Juliana Albuquerque, from the Baré people, from the Wayuri Network, took a photo denouncing the garbage on the banks of the Rio Negro, in one of the city's main ports. The photo went viral in the city and led to the D-Day mobilization – Rio Negro is not a place for garbage, which collected around 10 T of garbage. The mobilization was a finalist in the Megaphone Activism Award.
Furthermore, throughout this period, there were problems such as energy and water rationing, difficulty in accessing water in indigenous communities, the feeling of boiling water in the river, the death of fish especially in the lakes, lack of food products in supermarkets, high prices, suspension of classes.
Passenger transport on recreational boats - larger vessels, with space to hang hammocks - were suspended for some periods, with only speedboats being available.
In March this year, the river fell below its historic low, indicating a slower recovery. Passenger transport was suspended again. The thermoelectric plant had already been organized with its fuel stock, meaning there was no shortage of energy. However, residents lived with a lack of water supply.
At the beginning of April, rains began in the region, but remain below average. In São Gabriel, the ferry service had not yet fully returned to normal, according to information from traders in the city.
Forecasts
In 2024, the rivers of the Amazon should have less intense flooding, according to the Geological Survey of Brazil (SGB), a scenario resulting from the severe drought of 2023 and below-average rainfall, which makes it difficult for the rivers to recover. The forecasts include the municipalities of Manaus, Manacapuru, Itacoatiara and Parintins.
In the northwest of Amazonas, where São Gabriel da Cachoeira is located, projections indicate above-average rainfall.
The agency issued the Amazon Flood Alert on April 2. “We can highlight, through forecast models, that the 2024 flood in Amazonas will not be of great magnitude”, informed SGB geosciences researcher, Jussara Cury.
According to forecasts (with an 80% confidence interval), the Rio Negro should reach 27,21 m in Manaus, with the possibility of reaching a maximum of 28,01 m.
Climatological forecasts, released by the Amazon Protection System Management and Operational Center (Censipam), indicate that rainfall in the Amazon Region may return to normal with the end of El Niño.
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